Author Archives: vlm

It has been a busy start to the month of February. Other than the historic volatility in gold and silver prices, the biggest news for markets in January may have been the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. We anticipate a Warsh-led Fed will be able to steer the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) toward two rate cuts later this year, with help from easing inflation pressure. Remember, the Chair just gets one vote on the 12-member FOMC, so the health of the labor market and the path of inflation will be critical.

Kevin Warsh’s track record of flexibility on interest rate policy, his credibility with Fed officials, and prior advocacy for central bank independence should help ease concerns about the President’s influence. However, his preference for a smaller Fed balance sheet, now over $6.6 trillion, and his emphasis on fiscal responsibility could complicate the Treasury’s efforts to refinance government debt at lower rates. This dynamic will be important to watch because the U.S. government’s fiscal situation is not on a sustainable path.

One of the reasons Kevin Warsh is likely to push for lower rates, despite still-elevated inflation, is productivity gains from AI can help the economy grow faster with less inflation. Recent data shows U.S. nonfarm business productivity rose 4.9% in the third quarter of 2025, strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Technology and more efficient processes enable firms to produce more with fewer hours worked, a key reason economic growth will likely help push stocks higher.

AI investment is also helping drive a strong fourth quarter earnings season. S&P 500 companies are on track to deliver a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. While this is driven mostly by the tech sector’s 30% earnings increase, keep in mind industrials are tracking toward 25% earnings growth. Several leading companies have cited tangible benefits of AI during earnings season, including Bank of America, Meta, and Costco. Strong earnings can help solidify the floor under stock prices, while cooling inflation and stable interest rates can help raise the ceiling by supporting higher valuations.

Looking ahead, the backdrop for stocks remains favorable. Massive AI investment is driving gains in productivity and earnings. Consumers will get tax refunds associated with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act starting this month. Positive stock market performance in January often bodes well for annual returns, though past performance does not guarantee future results. And increased participation in this bull market is encouraging — the average stock has outperformed the S&P 500 Index over the past three months*.

AI scrutiny, deficit spending, and geopolitics remain key risks. New Fed Chairs like Kevin Warsh are often tested by markets, and midterm election years tend to be more volatile. Don’t let any volatility that may come along shake your confidence. It will not shake ours as we believe volatility creates opportunity. We will use our math and rules-based process to help identify opportunities in the market for our clients. Stay invested and make sure you are sticking to your investment plan. Remember that not having a plan, IS a plan, it’s just usually not a good one. If you are not sure if your plan could use some revision, we would be happy to sit down with you to discuss.

As always, please reach out to us with questions, we are always happy to help. Thank you for your continued trust and the opportunity to share.

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

As we settle into a new year here in our community, it feels like a natural moment to pause and reflect. Conversations with clients and neighbors over the past year reminded us how much the markets—and the world around them—can change, and how important perspective and steady guidance remain through it all. Looking back on 2025, it was a year that tested patience but ultimately rewarded discipline.

Stocks had another strong year in 2025 as most market benchmarks enjoyed their third straight year of double-digit returns. Last year’s performance was particularly rewarding given how much stocks overcame — notably tariffs. Tariffs weren’t the only obstacle, as market concentration, high valuations, deficit spending, and inflation occupied spots on investors’ lists of worries. Reflecting on 2025, here are some noteworthy takeaways:

In our view, bears are usually wrong.

The stock market had plenty of skeptics when 2025 began, just like 2023 and 2024. While stocks have down years, on average, they go up about three times as often as they fall (based on S&P 500 Index returns since 1980), though past performance does not guarantee future results.

Stocks usually follow earnings.

S&P 500 companies in aggregate grew earnings at a double-digit pace in 2025 and have the potential do so again in 2026, bolstering stock performance. It’s no coincidence the technology sector produced some of the strongest earnings growth and best returns last year.

Policy matters; politics, less so.

The volatility that almost ended the bull market last spring was driven mostly by tariffs, which directly impact corporate profitability. Once tariffs were reduced or removed, the major averages quickly reclaimed prior highs. If politics don’t hurt corporate profits, e.g., in a government shutdown, we believe they are unlikely to hurt the stock market.

Big market drawdowns and attractive annual returns can coexist.

The S&P 500 dropped to 19% below its record high at its 2025 low on April 8 but ended more than 16% higher for the year. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged an 11% annual gain (excluding dividends) and a 14% maximum intra-year drawdown. This perspective and a long-term focus can help ensure volatility doesn’t knock you off course as you pursue long-term goals.

Lower interest rates are good for both stocks and bonds.

The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained more than 7% in 2025 on the back of lower interest rates as the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered its target rate and inflation moderated. Those lower rates also helped stocks maintain lofty valuations at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) near 22 based on the consensus S&P 500 earnings per share estimate for the next 12 months. Valuations are not good predictors of performance year to year.

Looking ahead to 2026, stocks face some of the same challenges they did in 2025. While tariffs may play a smaller role, policy uncertainty around midterm elections could contribute to more volatility in the year ahead. With fiscal stimulus, Fed rate cuts, and huge artificial intelligence investments coming, another year of gains appears likely.

The year ahead brings fresh possibilities, and we’re embracing it with excitement and intention. Our new office at 70 North Main Street symbolizes growth, progress, and our ongoing commitment to the community we serve. As fiduciary advisors, we remain focused on delivering guidance grounded in integrity, transparency, and your best interests. We look forward to the road ahead and the opportunity to continue building strong financial futures together.

Thank you for your continued trust. Please reach out if you have any questions. We are always happy to help.

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

As the year winds down, many investors use the final weeks to review their financial picture and make thoughtful adjustments. While everyone’s situation is different, there are a few broad considerations that may help you approach year-end with clarity and confidence. Below are five key areas worth evaluating before the calendar turns to January.

1. Review Your Portfolio Allocation

Market conditions evolve throughout the year, and portfolios can drift away from their intended mix of stocks, bonds, and other asset classes. This “drift” may change your overall level of risk. Consider reviewing your allocation to ensure it still reflects your long-term objectives, time horizon, and comfort with volatility. Periodic rebalancing—when appropriate—can help maintain alignment with your financial plan.

2. Evaluate Tax Considerations

Year-end is often a strategic time to review realized gains or losses. Tax-loss harvesting, when suitable, may allow investors to offset certain taxable gains with losses. It’s also important to consider how distributions, dividends, and capital gains may affect your tax picture. Because taxes are complex and individualized, always consult with a qualified tax professional before making decisions.

3. Maximize Retirement Contributions

If you participate in a 401(k), 403(b), Traditional IRA, or Roth IRA, now is a good time to confirm whether you’re on track to maximize contributions for the year. Increasing contributions—even modestly—may help support long-term retirement goals. Be sure to check contribution limits and deadlines, as some accounts allow contributions up until the tax filing date.

4. Revisit Cash Reserves

As life changes, goals can evolve too. Year-end creates an opportunity to reassess short- and long-term priorities—whether that’s retirement planning, college funding, charitable giving, or preparing for a major purchase. Reviewing your emergency fund, insurance needs, and budgeting habits can help strengthen your overall financial foundation heading into the new year.

5. Understand Your Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)

If you’re age 73 or older this year, you may be required to take an RMD from your traditional IRAs or certain employer retirement plans before December 31. Failing to satisfy your RMD can result in a significant penalty. For those who don’t need the income, strategies such as Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs)—direct transfers to qualified charities—may help satisfy RMDs while also supporting causes that matter to you. As always, coordinating with your tax advisor is recommended.

A Thoughtful Close to the Year

As we move into the holiday season, it’s a meaningful time to reflect on what truly matters—our families, our health, and the communities we’re part of. At Victory Wealth Partners, we’re grateful to serve our Mullica Hill neighbors as fiduciaries, helping them navigate both everyday decisions and long-term plans with care, clarity, and transparency.

This season often reminds us that financial planning is not about numbers alone—it’s about providing confidence for the future and stability for the people you love. Whether you are reviewing your year-end checklist or simply taking a well-deserved pause, we wish you a peaceful, joyful holiday season filled with gratitude and connection.

If you’d like help reviewing any of these areas as the year wraps up, we are always happy to help.

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

As we gather around the Thanksgiving table this year, investors have more than just turkey and pumpkin pie to be thankful for. The financial landscape heading into the final stretch of 2025 offers a welcome mix of resilience and opportunity — and a few reasons to stay optimistic as we look toward the year ahead.

After a stretch of volatility earlier in the year, markets have found more solid footing. One of the biggest tailwinds has been easing concerns over global trade tensions. Tariffs, once viewed as a potential threat to growth, have proven less damaging than feared. Supply chains have continued to normalize, and global manufacturing data shows signs of steady improvement.

At home, corporate America remains a source of strength. Earnings across most major sectors have held up, thanks to disciplined cost management, healthy consumer demand, and continued innovation in technology and energy. Many companies have used the last few years of higher rates to build stronger balance sheets and focus on efficiency — a discipline that tends to serve investors well when the economy transitions into a slower but steadier growth phase.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to move forward with its second rate cut this fall signaled confidence that inflation pressures are moderating without undermining employment or growth. Markets have responded favorably, viewing the policy shift as a bridge toward a more balanced, sustainable economic environment.

Lower borrowing costs should provide breathing room for consumers and businesses alike. Homebuyers may see some relief, while companies can reinvest capital into expansion, technology, and productivity. Still, investors should remember that monetary policy works with a lag — and patience remains key.

Equity valuations have rebounded, but opportunities remain for disciplined investors who focus on fundamentals rather than headlines. Sectors tied to infrastructure, clean energy, and healthcare innovation continue to show strong secular growth potential. Meanwhile, dividend-paying stocks and high-quality bonds offer attractive yields for income-focused investors.

The lesson this Thanksgiving is simple: diversification and consistency are still the foundation of long-term success. The temptation to time markets or chase short-term trends rarely rewards patience. Instead, this is a great time to review your own financial plan, especially after a year of interest rate changes and shifting economic expectations. Doing so now will help ensure your portfolio stays aligned with your goals.

Thanksgiving is about gratitude, and there’s no better time to appreciate the progress made over the past year. Whether it’s the resilience of the economy, the adaptability of businesses, or your own commitment to your financial plan, every step forward matters.

Working with a fiduciary advisor ensures your financial plan stays grounded in your best interests — providing clarity and confidence no matter how markets move. At Victory Wealth Partners, we’re deeply grateful for the trust our clients place in us and for the relationships we’ve built within our community.

As we head into the holiday season, we invite you to join us in celebrating this spirit of gratitude and new beginnings.

JOIN US FOR OUR RIBBON CUTTING & OPEN HOUSE

We’re thrilled to welcome our clients and neighbors to our Ribbon Cutting & Open House on December 10th from 3–7 PM at our new location, 70 N Main Street, Mullica Hill.

Enjoy an afternoon filled with live music, holiday cheer and delicious local fare. The ribbon cutting will take place at 4:30 PM, and Bud Verfaillie will share remarks at 6 PM.

It’s a time to gather, reflect, and celebrate — and we’d be honored to have you with us as we begin this exciting next chapter together as neighbors.

Until next time, be well.

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

This October, some investors are feeling spooked by the continued government shutdown that began on October 1st. But while headlines may feel like something out of a horror movie, history suggests that these budget standoffs are usually more scare than substance.

Most government shutdowns are short-lived and have minimal sustained impact on the economy or the stock market. However, with each passing day, we creep closer to the longest government shutdown on record — and that’s giving some investors a case of financial fright.

Despite the haunted headlines, many essential services will continue without interruption, including Social Security payments, Medicare and Medicaid, FAA air traffic control operations, and other vital lifelines for Americans. In other words, while the government may be in a bit of a zombie mode, it’s not completely lifeless.

Historically, investors have wisely chosen not to be haunted by shutdowns, focusing instead on the real drivers of the market: corporate earnings, consumer spending, business investment, inflation, and interest rates. That said, sectors heavily dependent on government contracts — like defense and life sciences — could experience some short-term volatility chills.

An extended government shutdown could also delay key economic data releases, such was the case for the October 3rd jobs report. That might cause a few market jitters, but in our view, it’s unlikely to deliver a true fright to economic growth. Since 1976, the U.S. has seen 20 government shutdowns, averaging just eight days in duration. The longest — a 34-day marathon in 2018–2019 — felt more like a slow-burning psychological thriller than a market catastrophe.

Even after the fog lifts and a resolution is reached, markets have tended to rebound. The S&P 500 has historically posted average gains of 1.2% and 2.9% in the one- and three-month periods following the end of a shutdown. Like a vampire at sunrise, fears tend to vanish once the light of clarity returns — though, of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Still, even if investors choose to ignore the government shutdown drama, a seasonal scare might be overdue. Given the strong rally since April — and added pressures like tariffs — we see rising odds of a 5–10% pullback, which could feel like a brief Halloween jump scare rather than a true market meltdown.

That said, risk to this bull market remains low. The underlying strength of the economy, robust earnings, the anticipated resumption of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, and long-term catalysts like AI-driven productivity gains and fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) are keeping the market’s foundation strong — like garlic against a vampire.

In short, while some near-term volatility may rattle nerves, the broader outlook remains far from frightening. Investors should stay focused on fundamentals rather than the political drama, and consider any market dips as potential treats rather than tricks.

At Victory Wealth Partners, we understand that the scariest investment strategy is having no strategy at all. As fiduciaries, we are committed to acting in your best interest — providing objective guidance tailored to your financial goals.

With markets facing seasonal volatility and headlines that may feel like a haunted house of uncertainty, now is an ideal time to review your portfolio before any major market moves occur. Whether you’re seeking clarity, confidence, or simply a second opinion, we’re here to help you navigate the fog.

🎃 We wish you a safe, successful, and festive end to October — and as always, feel free to reach out if you’d like a fresh look at your investment strategy.

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

As summer winds down, the financial world remains focused primarily on the Federal Reserve (Fed). At last month’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the Fed seems ready to cut interest rates later this month amid a slowing labor market and inflation risks poised to recede. Markets responded to the Fed’s message with a small cap-led rally and lower Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield stands a good chance of staying in its current range, despite intensifying political pressure on the central bank. Containing long-term interest rates is critical as interest costs for the federal government continue to rise.

The latest inflation data for July matched expectations, but the slight increase in the year-over-year core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator — the Fed’s preferred inflation metric — from 2.8% in June to 2.9% in July reminded us that there is still work to be done on inflation. Tariffs won’t make that work any easier as they flow through with a lag, their legality notwithstanding.

At the same time, the Fed and markets agree that recession risks remain low and that corporate America is in excellent health. Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised higher to 3.3% annualized, a solid jumping off point for the second half. Fiscal policy stimulus coming in 2026 will likely offset tariff hits to the economy, creating a favorable backdrop. As markets are forward-looking, this setup can help stocks hold recent gains and mitigate potential market declines in case volatility picks up.

Meanwhile, corporate earnings continue to impress. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants delivered nearly 30% earnings growth in the second quarter and increased capital investment plans. Capital investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could approach $500 billion next year, and potentially hit $3 to $4 trillion by 2030, according to NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang. This investment bolsters the earnings growth outlook for the tech sector and, more broadly, could bring sizable productivity gains to corporate America. Growth stocks should continue to do well.

Risks may be manageable, but we feel obligated to point out that September has historically been the worst month for the stock market. While this month could live up to its reputation as a soft patch for stocks (the average S&P 500 September price change is -0.7% since 1950), history tells us that when the broader market is trending higher into the month, seasonal weakness is less of a factor. There is also some risk that markets don’t like the forthcoming effects of tariffs, especially with stock valuations elevated.

As we navigate these crosscurrents, we encourage investors to remain diversified and continue to follow their investment strategy. Monetary and trade policy shifts, political dynamics, and corporate earnings strength present both opportunities and risks. We will continue to ensure that our portfolio positions have a dedicated role, and if that role is no longer fulfilled, we will replace them. An investment strategy must be strictly followed to work as designed. If you have questions about your current investment strategy or portfolio positions, please give us a call. We remain committed to guiding you through these complexities with as much clarity and confidence as possible.

Thank you for your continued trust.

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

The last few days of July and the beginning of August have brought a flurry of key economic data, central bank activity, company earnings results, and tariff news. Here are some takeaways from the week of July 28:

Slowing U.S. economy

Second-quarter gross domestic product grew at a 3% annualized rate, though much of the growth stemmed from a sharp drop in imports after companies rushed orders ahead of tariffs. July’s jobs report showed a slowdown in hiring, signaling a labor market losing some steam. While this could support the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) case for easing, it also introduces concerns about consumer spending. Though we see no signs of an imminent recession, we believe the U.S. economy is unlikely to grow faster than 2% in the second half.

Resilient corporate earnings

Earnings season has been better than anticipated, showing that corporate America has more earnings power than previously thought. Analysts called for S&P 500 earnings per share to grow 4–5% year over year when earnings season began. We expected some upside, perhaps to around 8%, but companies are collectively on track to grow earnings by over 10% (source: FactSet). Big tech companies have been the key driver, accounting for half of earnings growth amid big investments in artificial intelligence (AI).

Stage set for a September rate cut

The Fed held rates steady on July 30, but Fed Chair Powell’s comments were less definitive than markets had hoped. The weak jobs report on August 1, however, revived expectations for a rate cut in September, which may help mitigate the magnitude of any stock market pullbacks. Two cuts of 0.25% each are likely this year, if not three, which should help support the bond market.

Don’t dismiss trade risks yet

The August 1 negotiation deadline passed, with several countries slated for tariffs well above the apparent floor at 15%. Only about half of the presumed tariffs have been implemented, meaning more upward pressure on prices and company profit margins lies ahead — after more tariffs take effect on August 7. Meanwhile, negotiations are continuing with China and several other key trading partners.

What this means for you

The market is navigating a complex landscape, with several economic and policy crosscurrents. A slowing economy, tariff implementation, and seasonal stock market weakness point to potential bouts of volatility ahead. Expected rate cuts, AI investment, and impending stimulus from tax and spending legislation passed last month may help buoy investor sentiment.

Pullbacks, when they inevitably come, can refresh bull markets and set them up for their next leg higher. So, we believe it’s important to stay invested and well-diversified, while looking for opportunities to add equities on a dip. Economic and corporate fundamentals remain in great shape.

Thank you for your continued trust.

As always, please reach out to us with any questions. We are happy to assist. As a fiduciary advisor we strive to provide clear and concise information without conflicts of interest. Enjoy these final weeks of summer!

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

As Americans get their grills and beach chairs ready for the July 4th holiday, the stock market and the weather across much of the country have both been on continuing to heat up. Stocks and bonds continue to effectively navigate a complex policy landscape shaped by evolving trade dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal stimulus. The market’s resilience in the face of these crosscurrents has been impressive, proving yet again that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy and corporate America can withstand a lot.

In a volatile first half, the S&P 500 completed an impressive recovery from the April lows to end June at a fresh record high. The round trip from the February 19 high to the April 2 low and back, in slightly over four months, was one of the fastest recoveries on record from a 10–20% correction. Importantly, history tells us stocks tend to go higher after recovering correction losses, with average gains of 9.6% and 16.2% in the subsequent six and 12 months.

Several factors helped fuel this rally:

• Israel-Iran cease-fire and resulting lower oil prices and lower interest rates
• Progress on trade deals and, so far, little evidence of tariff-driven inflation
• Stimulus from the pending tax cuts and spending bill
• Firming expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and related weakness in the U.S. dollar
• Resurgence in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) investments
• Buying by under-invested institutions trying to keep up with the rally

While history suggests achieving new highs may bode well for the rest of the year, we know stocks don’t go up in a straight line. Several obstacles lie ahead. Perhaps the biggest one is the yet-to-be-felt effects of tariffs on companies’ profit margins. With stock valuations elevated (as they’ve been for a while), earnings will be key to further upside. Potentially higher interest rates from additional deficit spending are another risk to monitor. And as always, geopolitics are a wild card.

We continue to monitor the macroeconomic backdrop, corporate fundamentals, policy developments, and technical indicators to guide our outlook. We believe the foundation for continued economic growth is intact, supported by resilient consumer spending, a healthy job market, modest earnings growth despite tariffs, the likely resumption of Fed rate cuts this fall, and the stimulus from the pending reconciliation bill. Staying invested and well-diversified while looking for opportunities to potentially add equities on weakness remains the prudent approach for this market environment.

Thank you for your continued trust. As a fiduciary we remain committed to bringing our community up to date with relevant investment and market updates without conflicts of interest. As always, we are here to help answer any questions you may have. From everyone at Victory Wealth Partners we wish you and safe and Happy Fourth of July!

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

As you have probably seen in the news, President Trump has announced new tariffs on nearly all major trading partners. These tariffs are “reciprocal,” on top of previously announced duties, and could have possible effects on the economy and investment markets.

In light of this, I wanted to share a factual and politically neutral perspective from the lens of your financial advisor, looking at what it could mean for your financial success and our key takeaways.

Navigating Market Volatility: Staying Focused on Long-Term Success

Above all else, we remember that we should be invested according to our time horizon therefore short term market moves should not impact our investment strategy. Tariff/trade changes are an ongoing process, and it will take time to see their full effects.

Remember that investors have faced many challenges over history, including the pandemic, inflation fears, wars, recessions, bubbles, political turmoil, and technological revolutions. In every case, markets went on to new highs, even if it took some time. While the past is no guarantee of the future, it’s important to not lose sight of this fact.

Let’s Establish Some Key Facts

To help cut through the noise, below we summarize some of the biggest developments and issues from the tariff announcement:

• The immediate market reaction is negative, with the major equity indexes being under pressure this week. However, fixed income and cash are holding steady.
• The newly announced tariff measures have been set at a minimum 10% rate, and the average tariff rate across countries is 25%, with rates for some countries as high as 49%. The level and scope are greater than many investors and economists expected. Remember, the market doesn’t like surprises in the short term.
• This all comes at a time where consumer and investor sentiment is low. Concerns currently include higher inflation and a possible recession, although uncertainty remains around policy implementation timelines and economic effects of the tariffs.
• At a company level, some U.S. manufacturers might benefit from less foreign competition. Conversely, about 30% of large U.S. companies’ sales come from overseas, so changes in trade rules could impact their business. Many companies are already adjusting their operations in response.
• Given limited visibility into trade policy outcomes, the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, viewing tariff effects as “transitory” one-time events. If needed, the Fed has shown in the past it could step in to support markets.

Key Takeaways and the Path Forward

These tariff announcements represent a major shift in trade policy. That said, successful investing isn’t about reacting to headlines or trying to time market movements. Rather, it’s about maintaining perspective and a well-diversified portfolio aligned with your financial goals.

There are many reasons to believe markets and the economy can eventually move past the current set of concerns. It’s important to recognize that this pattern falls within normal market behavior. Historically, about two-thirds of years deliver positive returns while one-third are negative. Markets have been due for a correction for quite some time. Despite these occasional downturns, the stock market has demonstrated growth across decades and market cycles.

Furthermore, maintaining perspective and portfolio diversification remains crucial for investors. Having the fortitude and discipline to stay invested and stick to your investment strategy is a key principle to long-term financial success. We are here to help you determine appropriate strategies for your investment portfolios.

Perhaps Warren Buffett said it best in 2008, during the middle of the global financial crisis: “In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.”

As always, we’re here to help you maintain perspective and make informed decisions about your financial future. Please reach out to us if you have any questions or just want to touch base. We understand this can be an unsettling time for investors and we are here to support you. Be well.

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

U.S. equity markets officially entered correction territory last month for the first time in 344 trading days. Tariff uncertainty feeding into economic growth concerns has been the primary catalyst behind the risk-off rotation. The 10% drop over the last month has been swift and painful, especially given that the selling pressure started from a fresh record high on February 19. However, although the economy has slowed this year as we expected, it has not stopped, and corporate America continues to deliver double-digit earnings growth. The solid fundamental footing supports our thesis that the economy is not entering a recession or a bear market. Historically tight credit spreads further support this view. Our message to investors right now is don’t panic and stay focused on the long term.

Frequently Asked Questions: Navigating Market Volatility

What is market volatility?
Market volatility refers to the degree of variation in stock prices over time. It is a natural part of investing, influenced by factors such as economic conditions, geopolitical events, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment.

Is volatility bad for my investments?
Not necessarily. While volatility can cause short term declines, it also presents opportunities for long-term investors to buy assets at lower prices. Historically, markets have recovered from downturns and continued to grow.

How often do market corrections happen?
Market corrections (declines of 10% or more) occur approximately every 1–2 years. While they can be unsettling, they are a normal part of market cycles and have historically been followed by recoveries.

Should I sell my investments when the market drops?
Selling during a downturn can lock in losses and prevent you from benefiting from market recoveries. It’s often better to stay invested and maintain a long-term perspective rather than react emotionally to short-term movements.

How can I mitigate volatility in my portfolio?

• Diversification: Spread investments across different asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) to potentially reduce risk.
• Rebalancing: Periodically adjust your portfolio to maintain the right mix of assets.
• Long-Term Focus: Stay committed to your financial goals rather than reacting to daily market fluctuations.

What is the impact of missing the best days in the market?
Studies show that missing just a few of the market’s best-performing days can drastically reduce long-term returns. Staying invested ensures you participate in both recoveries and long-term growth.

Are there opportunities during market downturns?
Yes! Volatility can create opportunities to:

• Buy high-quality investments at lower prices.
• Take advantage of tax-loss harvesting to offset gains.
• Rebalance portfolios to maintain strategic asset allocation

What should I do if I feel anxious about market fluctuations?

• Review Your Financial Plan: Ensure your investment strategy aligns with your long-term goals and risk tolerance.
• Talk to a Fiduciary Financial Advisor: We’re here to help you navigate uncertainty and adjust your strategy if needed.
• Stay Educated: Understanding market cycles can help reduce fear and improve decision-making.

What’s the best strategy for long-term success? Successful investors focus on:

• Staying invested through market ups and downs.
• Maintaining a diversified portfolio.
• Reassessing financial goals and risk tolerance periodically.
• Working with a trusted financial advisor to navigate uncertainty.

At Victory Wealth Partners, we understand market volatility can be unsettling, especially after two years of steady gains in stocks. Enduring the ups and downs is the price of admission for the attractive returns the stock market offers over time. It’s important to remember volatility is normal, but understanding and controlling emotions in the moment is the hard part. We are always here if you have concerns about your current investment strategy. It’s easy to overlook things when it seems like “everything is going up”. However, in a volatile market it is important to make sure your portfolio allocations all have a designated role that is based on your short-, mid-, and long-term goals. As always, we are here to help however we can. Please note Victory Wealth Partners will be moving across the street to 70 North Main Street in early May. We hope you will visit us soon in our new home! Until next month stay well.

ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT

Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.

Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.

This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.

References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.