April Market Update – Markets, Headlines and Perspective
With March headlines dominated by geopolitical tensions and recent U.S. military actions, investors are once again asking a familiar question: What does this mean for April markets?
Research from Nasdaq Dorsey Wright provides helpful historical context. While the headlines can feel unsettling, the data tells a more measured story.
Short-Term Volatility, Not Long-Term Damage
Markets have historically reacted negatively in the immediate aftermath of major events. For example, following Pearl Harbor, the S&P 500 declined more than 6% over the next five days.
But those reactions have typically been short-lived. As a reminder, markets despise the unknown. However, as uncertainty begins to settle, markets tend to refocus on fundamentals—earnings, interest rates and economic growth. Over time, that’s what has driven outcomes, not the headlines themselves.
The takeaway is simple: markets adapt and overcome.
Geopolitical shocks can elevate volatility, as this one has, but they do not typically derail longer‑term market trends unless the economic impact becomes both deep and persistent. Our broader stock market outlook for 2026 remains constructive. A growing economy, bolstered by fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and artificial intelligence (AI) investment, provides a supportive backdrop for stocks despite concerns about AI disruption. Earnings growth, particularly in technology, remains quite strong, powering S&P 500 earnings per share growth of 14% in the fourth quarter.
The Federal Reserve remains likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, when inflation pressures are expected to ease. Despite the initial sell-off in Treasuries after the Iran strikes, interest rates remain at comfortable levels for the economy. In February, mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022, helping to support the important housing market. These dynamics suggest that any weakness related to geopolitical volatility may present a buying opportunity
The Value of a Process
Periods like this can make it tempting to react according to our emotions. But reacting to headlines is rarely a strategy. Rather, we often remind clients that sometimes, practicing patience is our current move.
This is where having disciplined fiduciary process becomes important. When we make investment recommendations for our clients, we are not assuming that markets will only go straight up. Rather, we approach it from the lens of knowing markets can and will both pull back and correct over meaningful periods of time. We don’t hope it doesn’t happen, rather we build it into our strategy.
Instead of trying to predict outcomes, a structured approach filters out the distractors and focuses on what markets are doing.
By following market momentum and trends you can:
- Reducing specific exposure when risk increases
- Re-engaging as conditions improve
- Adjusting as leadership shifts
It creates consistency when emotions run high and helps keep decisions aligned with long-term objectives.
Just as importantly, a fiduciary framework ensures decisions are made with prudence and clear intention. Any potential investment strategy update should be focused on each client’s situation, not the noise of the moment.
Staying Grounded
History continues to show that while uncertainty can drive short-term volatility, markets are more resilient than they often feel in real time.
The real risk is how investors react when markets feel scary. I always go back to the famous quote by Warren Buffet “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” There can be opportunity in volatility, you just need to know how to drown out the excess noise.
Closing Thought
In environments like this, staying grounded in a disciplined process can matter more than trying to predict what comes next. Using math and rules to guide portfolio strategy can help remove emotion from the decision-making process at precisely the time when anxiety tends to run highest.
At Victory Wealth Partners, we continue to focus on applying a thoughtful, rules-based approach which helps our clients stay aligned with their goals, regardless of the headlines. We understand that headlines can be distressing, especially when they affect your investments. If you have questions about your current portfolio, we’re always available to provide guidance and perspective.
Have a great month!
ASHLEY ROSSER, PRESIDENT
Prior to her career in the financial services industry, Ashley earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from Cedarville University.
Ashley decided to make a career change from her ten years within the healthcare industry as a pediatric emergency room nurse to retirement and 401K investment planning. She joined Victory Fiduciary Consulting in 2008 after obtaining her Series 65 professional financial license and went on to earn her AIF (Accredited Investment Fiduciary) professional designation from the Center for Fiduciary Studies.
